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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

NFL Wk 9 Update: ESPN vs. ABC's

Well well well, It looks like the experts might actually start to know what they are talking about. growing their lead by a couple games this round.


Experts are at 68-49, ABC's are 63-54

57.6% to 53.4%, or a 5 game lead for the experts. this means that the experts have correctly predicted a winner more times then the Chicago Cubs won a game this past season, but in fairness, so have the ABC's. The only thing we can determine from this statistic is that the Cubs didn't win very many games.... I just made myself sad.

Here are the current weekly results

Week Expert W Expert L % Correct Random W Random L % Correct
1 8 8 50.0% 10 6 62.5%
2 8 8 50.0% 10 6 62.5%
3 8 8 50.0% 7 9 43.8%
4 10 4 71.4% 10 4 71.4%
5 9 5 64.3% 4 10 28.6%
6 3 11 21.4% 7 7 50.0%
7 11 2 84.6% 6 7 46.2%
8 11 3 78.6% 9 5 64.3%

As you can see though, one outlying week and this lead could all be undone.

Predictions for Next week based on power rankings;

Chargers over Chiefs
Broncos over Bengals*
Ravens over Browns*
Packers over Cardinals*
Bears over Titans
Dolphins over Colts*
Redskins over Panthers*
Lions over Jaguars*
Texans over Bills*
Vikings over Seahawks*
Buccaneers over Raiders
Giants over Steelers
Falcons over Cowboys*
Eagles over Saints

*Denotes ABC's method predicts opposite

As you can see, with 9 disagreements next week, the current lead could change fast, or be all but put out of reach of the ABC method.


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