Cubs 2013 Preview

Someday we'll go all the way...

The inspiring song by Eddie Vedder that allows the eternal cubs fan to cling to that hope that all the grief and disappointment of bleeding Cubbie blue will one day be vindicated and make that magical year all the more immaculate when the Cubs will finally win the whole thing.

This is the kind of year that will make Cubs fans say "Someday...".

Our presumptive ace, Matt Garza, out. Shawn Baker, the -let's take a chance- middle of the rotation strength, out. Ian Stewart, out. All three starting off on the DL. LaHair moved to Japan, we released Campana for reasons that I can't begin to fathom. They are a distant memory now. So lets look to who we are putting out on the field.

Position Players

First Base: Tony "I'm not a Mob Boss" Rizzo (.285 BA/15 HR) - having played for team Italy in the World Baseball Classic, a lot is resting on this guys shoulders to come out and give opposing pitchers SOMETHING to realise that they aren't just playing catch with their catcher.

Second Base: Darwin "The Golden Boy" Barney (.254 BA/7 HR) - Coming off a solid defensive year and returning the 2nd Base Golden Glove to it's rightful home in Chicago, a lot may be asked of Darwin as far as base running to help produce some small ball offense.

Shortstop: Starlin "Defacto All Star" Castro (.283 BA/14 HR) - Slowly showing some more maturity, Castro is now considered a seasoned veteran on this infant team of infielders.

Third Base: Luis "What happened to Ian" Valbuena (.219 BA/4 HR) - Earning a fair amount of starting time last year with Stewart suffering from leg issues, Luis starts this year... earning starting time while Ian nurses a leg injury.

Catcher: Welington "There is only one 'L' in Welington" Castillo (.265 BA/5 HR) - He's had some great offensive years in the minors, and his defense has been improving. With Soto gone the Cubs are expecting a lot from this 26 year old.

Left Field: Alfonso "1/3rd of the payroll" Soriano (.262 BA/32 HR) - He's been averaging 4 steals a year the last few years, but that's ok cause he was healthy pretty much all of last year. Waitaminute...

Center Field: David "d.Jesus" DeJesus (.263 BA/9 HR) - He hasn't been an everyday center fielder since '07. But the 33 year old is preferred over the 'not quite ready for the bigs' Brett Jackson. This may, probably will, almost certainly will change near the trade deadline, I'm just saying.

Right Field: Scott "Please stay Healthy" Hairston (.263 BA/20 HR) - He'll probably loose a lot of playing time to veteran and already named opening day starter Nate Schierholtz, but Scott is the best pick up we made as far as position players this off season. We really need him to take swings in the 5 spot in my mind to offer some protection to Anthony and Alfonso.

It was a rough off season, we aren't in a position to pick up a huge free agent since we have little to surround them with. I'm very confused though why we picked up a couple decent outfielders while letting LaHair and Campana walk away, and then picked up one new infielder, especially with so many question marks around third base. We grabbed Lillibridge, we can plug a whole defensively just about anywhere, but that's it. I have no idea what would happen if any of our infielders went down at this point. Vitters is a distant possibility to free up Valbuena to move over somewhere. I'm not being blown away by anyone in spring training. Baez needs a couple years yet. If we would have grabbed/held on to a Scott Moore or someone like him this off season I'd feel a little better about not completely shooting ourselves in the foot as far as infield depth.

I also want to make one more point about letting Campana go, this was the stupidest move the Cubs have made since Maddux for that other guy. We are gearing to be a small ball team with DeJesus, Castro, and Barney having the best chances of crossing the plate, so why on earth did we get rid of a guy who was built to pinch run in the 7th inning. He could have racked up 50 stolen bases just from doing that 5 times a week. I think this move in itself cost the team 40+ runs and probably a dozen wins this year. Nothing but love for him in Arizona now.

Pitchers

When Baker had to leave his first spring training start after recording only one out and three earned runs, I started to get that feeling that things where not going as planned. Here is who was have to fill out the opening five rotation spots;

Jeff "The Shark" Samardjiza (9-13/3.81 ERA) - Showing some great strides in improvement last year as a starter, but a far cry from an Ace. The Cubs need him to smooth out the edges and pitch to his potential.

Edwin "The Big Pick-Up" Jackson (10-11/4.03 ERA) - I'm always a little Leary of players that need more then one hand to go through the teams they've played on <cough...Milton...cough...Bradley...cough>. Excuse me. If you recall though, I suggested this pick up back in October. Just try re-reading this rotation without him in it.

Travis "Not Kerry" Wood (6-13/4.27 ERA) - We gave up a lot with left handed specialist Sean Marshall and we're still waiting to get a return on that trade. He is looking pretty good so far this spring training, so here's hoping.

Scott "Also Recovering from Injury" Feldman (6-11/5.09 ERA) - After the '09 season, the sky seemed the limit for 17-8 Feldman. But, since then he has stumbled and battled injury. $6 Million seems a bit steep for the question marks surrounding this guy, but with so much talent on the DL, Cubs need to this to turn out to be a smart pickup.

Carlos "The .500 Pitcher" Villanueva (7-7/4.16 ERA) - That's right, the guy who got moved into the 5 spot after two key injuries is the only person standing on the bump who didn't have a loosing line last season.

It could have been worse, we even have Casey Coleman who is looking great in spring training should one more guy go down to injury. We knew we had a lot of question marks so we went out and grabbed more pitchers then we should have needed to get into the scenario we find ourselves. Hopfully Garza and/or Baker bounce back quick and gives up options for the year.

We do, fortunately, have a decent bullpen forming, Hoping that Marmol earns his salary, Fujikawa is as good as advertised and keeps his impressive line going past spring training. Camp is back, Russell is looking good. And a few other guys are looking good in limited action that could round out a decent list of options. Of course, the pessimist in me reminds you that if out starters have trouble getting through 6 or even 5 innings    then you need about 8 awesome arms in the bullpen to make up for it.

All in all, the expectations have to be pretty low for the 2013 season. We're still waiting for the players of tomorrow to grow up while hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with high risk free agents. Who knows, maybe we have the next Mike Trout in the wings and our rotation puts up career numbers... OR.... The Cubs will fight and flail to avoid another 100 loss season, will trade anyone with value (DeJesus, Jackson, Soriano) and we'll try again next year. 

But, I recall again, the great words of Eddie Vedder, 

...Someday we'll go all the way.

Baseball Off Season

What do the clubs across the league need to do to get their teams back into contention for the 2013 season? Well I'm glad that you asked. Below are my notes on what to look for this off season, as well as the label if the team is a buyer, seller, or unknown. This of course in no way implies some form of exclusivity, but rather an indicator if the club is happy with the core of major leaguers is in need of one or two major pick ups of needs to be torn down and built back up. ENJOY!

Arizona Diamondbacks - Unknown

One of two teams that hit the .500 mark on the nose. Look to see what they do with BJ Upton's contract this off season to see if they feel they are on the right path back to the playoffs or if they will begin to cash in some of there bigger names approaching Free Agency to bring in some younger talent.

Atlanta Braves - Buyers

What to do with the hot corner in Atlanta? And what happens if Bourn walks? I see Atlanta trying to lock up Bourn and bring in another name for a corner infield. Atlanta does have a solid defensive team so look for a little pop in the lineup to give Atlanta an edge next year.

Baltimore Orioles - Buyers

After beating all expectations and a Boston team that appears to still be flailing, Baltimore has to think that their time is now or never. Look for them to loosen the purse strings in the ballpark of $15 Million in the free agency market and/or trade a prospect to bring in a bat from a team willing to eat some salary. 

Boston Red Sox - Sellers

Sellers, but probably very finicky ones. A big buy could still happen with an offer for a Hamilton or another big name to try and create a spark. Though the long term strategy seems to be toward a rebuild, any new manager should get a season to decide who will be part of the future and who won't. I don't believe the fire sale to LA last year was the entirety of Boston's tear down, but by the end of next season the short list will be created, and next off-season will be an epic one for this team in the Free Agency market.

Chicago White Sox - Buyers

I feel that the South Side is pretty happy with the team they got, though will add where the price is right. It will be interesting what kind of offer they tender to A.J this off season, especially when it comes to number of years.

Cincinnati Reds - Unknown

The Reds have spent the last several years piecing together the very good team that they have. They will likely have some holes to fill. But, with Cuedo, Votto, Bruce, and Phillips locked in, the team may look from within to fill some of these roles and keep their bank account looking good when it comes time to retain some of their bigger names in years to come. 

Cleveland Indians - Sellers

A decent collection of middle of the road players led by Choo should make for some tempting grazing grounds for teams looking to round out their rosters either this winter or at the next trade deadline. With few high prospects in the majors, Cleveland will continue to try and accumulate prospects in the hope of striking gold in the near future.

Colorado Rockies - Buyers

A Team that has to be very happy with the results of moves made last off season when it comes to position players, but their rotation is severely lacking, with <70 wins, the question is how much will the Rockies shell out in free agency for the coveted starting pitcher and how much will they look to within to bolster a team that was #1 in hits, #3 in RBI's, and #16 in ERA in the national league. The days of Coors being a hitters park are indeed alive and well.

Detroit Tigers - Buyers

With so many huge names locked in, you have to imagine Ilitch and Dombrowski are far from giving up on a ring after coming so close. With Valverde walking, priority one will be the Bullpen, though it sounds like they have a hot prospect coming up. If this is the case, then there could be plenty of money lying around to go grab one more big name.

Houston Astros - Sellers

After dumping the few big stars they had last season, I don't think the Astros are done. Jed Lowrie will probably be put on the blocks again and a lot of younger players will get their shot before this team starts reaching into their pocketbook.

Kansas City Royals - Buyers

They already grabbed Erivin Santana to bolster the rotation. The Royals have been patient and have put together a pretty decent lineup. Expect another modest pick up and see where that can take them in a division where 90 wins could make the playoffs.

Los Angeles Angels - Unknown

The late season pick up of Greinke wasn't enough to take the Angels over the hump and into the post season, but with so many big contracts and Trout just getting warmed up, you have to expect this team will be competing for the next several years. The question is how much do they have left in the bank to go out and grab another piece. I'd expect an attempt to at least drive up the price of Greink for another team. But nothing else of major note. 

Los Angeles Dodgers - Buyers

Well well well, after one of the most aggressive clubs in recent history failed to grab a playoff spot, where does that leave you? t does appear that the new ownership is committed to making a dominant Dodgers team a reality. Look for Kershaw to get a new buddy in the rotation by opening day.

Miami Marlins - Unknown

With such an active season that ended up to be such a bust, it's hard to imaging the club making another big acquisition so quickly, but you also don't see them reverting back to the old days of an all star farm team so quickly. You never know, maybe that god awful green paint that covers everything in the outfield opened up some cash for another round of purchases. 

Milwaukee Brewers - Buyers

Reluctant, but buying. They have a good thing started in Milwaukee, and they will need to feed the beast a bit, ideally with pitching, but if a better deal shows up with a bat, they will need something if they want it to continue with the good thing they started under the Fielder/Braun era. 

Minnesota Twins - Sellers

After losing their best pitcher Baker for all of 2012, it became apparent that the Twins did not have much going for them. Look for them to lock in Baker for a long term deal with the "coming off of tommy jones" discount and continue with the rebuilding process.

New York Mets - Buyers

After showing a lot of long awaited signs of life early in the 2012 season, the Mets might finally be in the position to spend some money and get their big market fan base a reason to support them again. The biggest question marks arise when looking at what kind of contract Dickey and Wright will need to stay put, and how much that will leave to grab a new catcher or bull pen help.

New Your Yankees - Buyers

Not even going to look down the stat lines for this team, if the Yankees feel they need something, they will go out and get it. Who will play Closer, Shortstop, Third base, and DH are all good questions, but one thing is for sure, if A-Rod leaves the Yanks, it won;t be because the Yanks think they can get some good young talent for him.

Oakland A's - Unknown

A team that consistently does a lot with very little, they will probably grab a couple guys deep in the free agent market and slide some players around that won;t make the front page of the paper, and still come out with a 90+ win team next year. A solid Rangers team and a stacked Angels team will make it difficult to repeat a playoff appearance though. 

Philadelphia Phillies - Buyers

Look for the Phillies to grab a big bat to keep the team winning while they focus on rebuilding their rotation. The sale of the team last year freed up a lot of cash and a lot of holes to fill to get them over the .500 mark.

Pittsburgh Pirates - Mid Season Buyers

They seem doomed to come out of the gates hot next year after a quite off season, only to wind up a few games out at the trade deadline and no cash to make a big splash with. I thought grabbing Wandy Rodriguez and Gaby Sanchez, but ultimately it didn't pan out.

San Diego Padres - Sellers

Though I should put an asterisks on this one, with new ownership that appears to be committed to some of the better trading chips that the Padres have to offer, such as Headley, there may be a bit of a 'wait and see' approach this off season. Making more modest acquisitions and trades. 

San Francisco Giants - Buyers

A lack luster season by The Freak doesn't have too many people worried, but the thought is that a few position players could be asking for a lot more then they would normally get thanks to the shiny finger packaging that they now sport. The Giants have had success using the formula of solid pitching and filling a lot of position holes on the fly. Don't expect any big names to be brought in, but expect the lineup to look quite a bit different next year.

Seattle Mariners - Sellers

Might catch some flack for this one, but the Seattle farm system just isn't deep enough to justify bringing in a big player to let them compete against the Rangers, Angels, and A's next year, and the payroll just isn't there. It will probably be more active at mid-season. Another bust year for the Angels and a Hamilton-less Ranger team could swing this race back to the Mariners favor though.

St. Louis Cardinals - Buyers

Proving that there is plenty of life in this club after Pujols, If Berkman calls it quits then look to the team making a splash to replace his bat, or getting a fresh young face to bolster a veteran rotation. In a couple years this club will be faced with the decisions to go young or not, but for now, this team can continue to compete with tweaks instead of rebuilds.

Tampa Bay Rays - Unknown

With Upton, Sheilds, and Pena all having question marks over them, it would be easy to call the Rays buyers to keep up in the AL East, but this is the Rays, somehow they will find another pair of All-Star prospects while fielding a team that makes a total of about $50. How do they do it?

Texas Rangers - Buyers

At the very least, Rangers are going to try and keep Hamilton, which may be a task to great to accomplish. Teams like the Brewers, Giants, Phillies, or even the BoSox will be betting on him to the point that Texas could bow out and pursue a pair of cheaper options. A nightmare scenario has the Yankees decreeing that they will get Hamilton, period. Any route will have Texas forking out some cash. 

Toronto Blue Jays - Sellers

They already traded their best Manager, I don't see them making the moves it would tack on the 25+ games they need to make the playoffs, parting with Johnson or Villinueva seem more likely.

Washington Nationals - Buyers

Alert the presses, The Nationals have waited years to make their run, a healthy Strasburg and several other things clicking in their favor, adding a big bat or a relief pitcher could go a long ways.

So there you are, all 29 teams. Wait, whats that? I missed one?

What would Theo dp?

Chicago Cubs - Sellers

Possibly the biggest sellers of them all, Garza could head out, there are already attempts at moving Soriano and Marmol, no decent offer will be turned away as the Cubbies are at least one more year away from making any huge moves towards being a truly competitive team. A move to bring in a vet in the rotation or the bench isn't out of question, but I'd be shocked if it were Greinke or Hamilton. 

Cub's June Review

I'm sitting here watching the Cubs get slaughtered by the Twins and I started thinking; what the heck, let's do another Cubs review;

Quick synopsis of the season, we stink, there I said it, we're 19-39 when I start this, will probably be 19-40 by the time I finish. So instead of trying to go through player by player and justify the few non 'F' grades I'd give out, lets do an awards style prezzy, enjoy!

Most Deserving to be pissed off at the rest of the team: Ryan Dempster - Take a look at the following two lines, one is a line for the Majors league leader in wins, R.A. Dickey, and the other is Dempster's, can you tell who is who?

ERA   G    CG   IP     H   R   ER   K   BB  WHIP

2.44    12  1      81.0  65  23  22   78  19    1.04

2.59    10  0      66.0  52  21  19   57  19    1.08

Not exactly a tie, but both very good, one is 9-1 and the other is 1-3. Runner Up: Matt Garza

Most in need for a trip back to Iowa: Carlos Marmol - He's at least gotten stuff over the plate the last couple outings, but for a looooong stretch there he was incapable of getting stuff even over the plate. Now he just hangs slides over the inside of the plate and is getting knocked around. Slight improvement over 11+ BB/9 Innings he's got going for him. Runner Up: Geovany Soto

Most deserving to go to the All Star Game: Bryan LaHair - It's tough enough for an unknown rookie to crack the bigs as a first baseman, but with a .980 OPS and only 3 errors in what has to be a highly scrutinized role has to be applauded. Runner Up: Ryan Dempster

Most Likely to go to the All Star Game: Starlin Castro - He's playing a little better then last year (F% is .968 over .961 from last year), but he was also the de facto pick last year. And let's face it, nobody is turning heads here. A decent inside infielder is a  lot harder to come by then a first baseman or even starting pitcher. Runner Up: Alfonso Soriano

Most Deserving of More Playing Time: Tony Campana - Sharing some time with Johnson and Mather in the outfield as his hitting seems to be a bit streaky, but I see no reason this guy shouldn't be a pinch runner for Soriano or anyone else in the 7th and then left in almost every day he doesn't start. Runner Up - Steve Clevenger

Biggest Surprise on the Team: Bryan LaHair - Hear me out, with an inconsistent Soriano as your protection, and with the desire to get a Pujouls or a Fielder, and a Rizzo sitting there at Iowa, the pressure on him was extreme. I accept the premise that no news is good news as far as the amount of attention this guy has gotten. Quietly on pace for 30+ Homers and a near .400 OBP and near 1.000 OPS. He needs to improve his RISP average, but who on this team doesn't? Runner Up: Joe Mather

Best Thing about Dave Sveum: Not complaining - He's having to through first or second year guys in several positions daily (i.e. Barney, Clevenger, Campana, Cardenas, Stewart, LaHair, Wood, etc.), given a very weak bullpen and an unproven rotation. the Club probably had $40 million to spend this off season and spent almost none of it save for DeJesus. Dealing with a team that every player is on the trading block and what can only be a high stress clubhouse. The expectations where low but not this low, and what do you hear in the way of complaints? Nothing, Most of the guys are running hard and playing good defense, aggressive on the bases and noting complaining a peep to the press. No screaming at the umps or breaking bats over knees. You can say removing Zambrano was a big part of that. But I think this staff has a good head on their shoulders and are not trying to kid themselves. A good environment to get a good look at these kids and hopefully find the first round of pieces to start rebuilding a competitive team on.

Next Month, a list of players from the current roster I'd like to see worked into the Long term plan. Don't worry, it's a short list.

Cubs Report Card: Position Players

Moving on to Position Players;

Position Players - Starters:
   David DeJesus RF - Not the big bounce back that the organization may have hoped for, but he's doing allright in the lead off role with a .360 OBP. GRADE: B
   Tony Campana CF - If you converted his Stolen Bases to doubles, this guy would probably lead the team in slugging. Torn between getting this guy into the leadoff role to get into scoring position quickly or making double play balls almost impossible in the two spot. GRADE: A
   Starlin Castro SS - Picking up from last year with good contact, and hot cold defense. Get those feet set and do us proud! GRADE: B
   Bryan LaHair 1B - First Base has to be one of the hardest positions to crack the big leagues in. B and I watched Hoffpauier at Iowa for years have great success and never given a clean shot to make it in the majors. So, I am super excited that Bryan is getting that chance and running with it. GRADE: A+
   Alfonso Soriano LF - What can be added here that hasn't been said on every Cubs Blog in the universe. I guess his defense is off to a "better" start then last year. GRADE: C-
   Ian Stewart 3B - I think we are a better defensive team with him in the hot corner. (Note: better is not good, just better) The bat needs to come alive to make me not start chanting 'Vitters' by year end though. GRADE: C-
   Geovany Soto C - Flashes of his rookie self from time to time, and he still calls a good game, but we needed an offensive anchor in the back of the lineup and my eyes where on Soto. No major harm has come from our low Caught Stealing percentage, but if your catcher isn't offensive, and so-so defensively... well... GRADE: D+
   Darwin Barney 2B - Not skipping a beat in the offseason, our solid dependable Second Baseman is back along with about half the team I'd like to see some improvement offensively, but he shouldn't have the burden of hitting 20+ HR's. GRADE: B-
 
Position Players - Bench
   Reed Johnson OF - Look at his playing time to be anemic until either Campana gets hurt, or Soriano gets traded. But he has shown in the past he can be a potent pinch hitter. GRADE: C-
   Joe Mather IF/OF - Wasn't sure what we where doing with this guy having Baker, DeWitt, Johnson, and Campana ready to go, but I'll admit, this may be the best off season add on. GRADE: B
   Jeff Baker IF/OF - Once LaHair was healthy I didn't really see a reason to put Jeff in at first, and when Campana got called up I didn't see why he needed to be put in right field. Just switching a right handed bat when he's batting sub .200 at the time makes little sense to me. GRADE: D-
   Steve Clevenger C - Another pleasant surprise. Makes up for some defensive shortcomings with good at bats. GRADE: B
   Wellington Castillo C - When I've been seeing Soto's numbers slip the last couple years, I've checked in on how Wellington was doing at Iowa. His time has been limited but 5 K's in 11 AB's for what most would consider an offensive Catcher leaves you witched a cocked brow and bitten lip. GRADE: Incomplete
   Blake DeWitt - IF - Obviously Joe stole his job, hopefully we can get a decent bullpen pitcher or something for him. GRADE: Transfer

Cubs Report Card: Pitchers

Hey Cub Fans! We're 30 games into the 2012 season, let's issues some 1/5th of the season report Cards. First up, Pitching;

Pitchers - Starters:
   Ryan Dempster - What can you say? Yeah, he's 0-1, but EVERY other stat falls in his favor, averaging over 7 innings a start, 10K/9 innings, sub 1 ERA? GRADE: A+
   Matt Garza - You gotta feel good that he hasn't had to carry the full weight of the starting rotation this season.  This is a front of the rotation guy doing his thing. GRADE: A
   Jeff Samardjiza - A Pleasant surprise! Some rocky starts but showing good enough stuff that you feel he belongs in the rotation after several seasons having to watch him learn to be a Major League pitcher the hard way, by being an overpaid minor league'er in the majors. GRADE: B
   Chris Volstad - What a Spring Training! And it does appear that if he can just get through the "Big Inning" each start he could reach his potential that made him a first round pick. Needs to cap those big innings or stretch starts to 7+ innings consistently. GRADE: D+
   Paul Maholm - Already seeing some turn around with him the last couple starts. Rough start but settling down and picking up wins. GRADE: C+
   Randy Wells - Only a couple starts, but he seems to have lost that pinpoint pitch placement. GRADE: D
   Travis Wood - Solid opener, high walks but low hits. Grade: Incomplete

Pitchers - Relievers:
   Carlos Marmol - When you are in a spot that you HAVE to through something over the plate and you can't do it. He's 2 for 4 in Save Opportunities on paper, but by my count he's 2 for 5. GRADE: F
   Kerry Wood - I love this guy, I really do, hopefully it's just a bad early season streak, but you have to be worried that his arm is just not there. GRADE: D-
   James Russell - I loved Sean Marshall, and I still contest that we shouldn't have traded him. BUT, the Cubs higher ups where ready to hand over the left handed specialist role to Russell, and he has excelled splendidly! Grade: A
   Rafeal Dolis - Definitely one of the bright spots of the season so far, Holding a lot or water for a bullpen that is lacking people filling critical rolls. GRADE: B+
   Shawn Camp - Closest thing Cubs have to a veteran presence in the bullpen. helping shore up some short starts and getting out of a couple jams. GRADE: B
   Rodrigo Lopez - Picking up the long releiver roll from where he was last year. Pretty ho-hum. GRADE: C-
   Lendy Castillo - A good example of just how shallow the Cubs farm system is for pitching, probably should be a AA right now, but what ya gonna do? GRADE: D