NFL Draft Predictions

Forget players, here is a list of what the NFL teams need to draft this off season:

1. Houston Texans - Lowered Expectations, They went from Post Season contenders to worst record in the league in one year, come on people, give them a break.

2. Washington Redskins (Traded to STL) - The ability to not have their team name be brought up during the draft. Trading away this years first round pick was a good step in accomplishing this.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - They need to stop eeking out a win once a month, The team with net 50 fewer net points then the team with the worst record tells you that these guys just don't know how to get a #1 overall pick. This will be the 3rd straight year with a top 5 pick while never having the number 1 overall.

4. Cleveland Browns - For Lebron James to move back to Cleveland and give Browns fans something to cheer about.

5. Oakland Raiders - To have the team learn to change a tire, that way they all stop showing up for a blowout <snicker snicker>

6. Atlanta Falcons - To draft some guy with the last name Vick that will wear number 7. that way I can finally start wearing my Falcons jersey while walking my dog again.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - To see Janet Jackson's teet again, it seemed to work out pretty well for them the first time, and it's been pretty much downhill ever since.

8. Minnesota Vikings - A New Stadium, there is a new one coming up next year, so just trade away this pick and hold out until then. Any old un-drafted college stadium should do until then.

9. Buffalo Bills - They need Berman to stop insisting that they "Circle the wagons." They tried that, it doesn't work!

10. Detroit Lions - For someone to remind the franchise that there are games that occur after the regular season.

11. Tennessee Titans - To give Jake Locker some comedy lessons, the last time he shared something with his receivers, it went over their heads.

12. New York Giants - To start a residential lawn clean up service, that way they could pick up a yard.

13. St. Louis Rams - Develop a website, that way they could string three 'W''s together.

14. Chicago Bears - A new exercise bike for Cutler to use while his team has the ball.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ditch the Slow and Old, get back to the Black and Gold.

16. Dallas Cowboys - The Owner needs to have a serious talk with the General Manager.

17. Baltimore Ravens - A home opener, they kind of got screwed last year.

18. New York Jets - To resign Tim Tebow and create a new offensive formation with Geno Smith in a wishbone with Micheal Vick and Tebow in the backfield. I call it the 'WHAT THE F#%&!!' formation.

19. Miami Dolphins - To get over their perfect season, we get it, 40 some odd years ago you were really good, so was ABBA, Grease, and Pong!

20. Arizona Cardinals - For the NFL to expand the playoffs to an additional 4 teams.

21. Green Bay Packers - Laser removal on Aaron Rodgers face.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - For Eagles fans to stop having their Superbowl dreams from being crushed when their mothers wake them in the morning. <snicker snicker>

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Change something? Are you kidding me? I've never seen Chiefs fans more ecstatic over their odds!

24. Cincinnati Bengals - To find a way around having to play such good teams in the playoffs.

25. San Diego Chargers - I've been saying 'A new coach' for years, but they got that last year, so I think they are good.

26. Indianapolis Colts (Traded to CLV) - For Denver to host a pregame tribute to Peyton Manning the week that they play the Broncos.

27. New Orleans Saints - A call to Pope Francis about finally getting some of these guys canonized. They are, after all, already Saints!

28. Carolina Panthers - To not fall under any sense of disillusionment that going 12-4 again will be easy. Just look at Houston and Atlanta.

29. New England Patriots - Somebody needs to locate Tom Brady's cell phone, he can't seem to find his receiver. <snicker snicker>

30. San Francisco 49ers - To sign Mark Sanchez as a back up... and a warning.

31. Denver Broncos - For the NFL to accept the fact that they are playing in a state that has a fully legal product that can be used to treat pain caused by glaucoma, nerve damage, and devastating Super Bowl defeats.

32. Seattle Seahawks - A massive endorsement deal with Skittles Candies.

Tebow-ing versus Kapernick-ing

Tim Tebow. A young christian kid from Jacksonville. Guilty of doing little more then doing well in school and winning football games. For years, his personality and style of play made him a burning topic across sports outlets everywhere.

I'll admit it, I was a huge fan of Tebowmania. My wife is a huge Broncos fan and I hopped on the band wagon during the Plummer years, but I've always been irked as to why NFL pundits give so much derision to Tebow. Is it because he doesn’t exactly fit the mold of the ideal NFL quarterback? He’s not terribly accurate, he can’t throw the long ball and he doesn't read the field all that well. He’s never has, and probably never will go to a Pro Bowl. Nor has he, and probably never will, gone through a whole season as a starter.

His pinnacle of NFL success came a couple of years ago when he and the Denver Broncos had a magical year in which they won countless games by the skin of their teeth, almost all led by Tebow.

That brings us to this current season, when another quarterback has become the darling of the sports broadcast world, just this morning I happened upon the Mike and Mike show in which they went through their top 5 QB's under the age of 26. Making the list of the top 5 over successful QB's Newton and Dalton was a guy I'm personally very much on the fence about: Colin Kaepernick. Despite putting up less then stellar numbers this year, the Niners are winning at a good click and the endorsements, along with sports commentators adoration, are flowing freely.

It got me thinking about the hypocrisy of stating that all that matters is winning one moment, and then destroying a man for seemingly doing nothing but win the next. Let's compare some not so insignificant stats of Kaepernick, now 9 starts into his sophomore season, and Tebow, 9 games into his second season of 2011, or a couple losses after Denver's miracle run of 7 straight wins. Colin is 6-3, Tim was 7-2. Colin has 9 Passing TD's, along with his 3 Rushing TD's, got 12 total, to go with his 6 picks and 5 Fumble turnovers. Tim had 10 passing TD's plus 4 rushing for a total of 14 TD's to contrast his only 2 interceptions and 4 fumbles lost. And total passing plus rushing yards? Colin beats out Tim by a whopping 6 yards (1,985 to 1,979).

The biggest contrast is that Tebow threw for a paltry 49.3% completion rate at 9 games in, versus Kaepernick's more palatable 56.4%, but even then Colin is averaging less the 1 yard better in yards per attempt. (7.61 yards/attempt versus 6.73 yards/attempt). Many people would also quickly point to the post season, where Colin's 2-1 record would seemingly dwarf Tim's 1-1 lifetime record.

You could also just as easily point to their respective teams scenarios at the time of their succession. With Tebow on the bench, the Broncos were hurting at 5-16 (.238 winning percentage), where as the 49ers were sitting pretty at 21-5-1 (.796 percent) when Kaepernick was sitting idly by since 2011. I could go back and fourth for a while.

If you want to draw your own conclusions about why one is so obviously preferred over the other, then feel free to stop reading here, but if you want to ask me, the answer is simple. Tebow just doesn't give commentators anything to feed off of.

Colin is more apt to have that big pass play, is flashier with his Kaepernicking then Tim's humble Tebowing was ever meant to be, despite many attempts to turn it into something that it wasn't. Colin's success is easier to display on a highlight real with 2 or 3 big plays in a game, versus Tebows constant running and clock draining to keep a game low scoring and then pull off one big play at the end. It was too easy to point to a low completion percentage and say "He can't do it" then it was to try and explain week after week how he, in fact, did it. In a word, the sports world got lazy with Tebow, and dismissed him the instant that reality reflected their prejudice.

I'm not under any naive expectation that anything will change with this simple realization, Colin will be given years to either develop into the great quarterback that he could become or fade from the spotlight like so many others. While Tebow is sitting at home considering his options for the future outside the NFL. This post is little more then one last bitter sigh of how the wants of the sports entertainment industry has superseded the desire to learn more about the elements of the game that remain a mystery to many of us, and I feel the NFL is just a little more tarnished as a result.

NFL Headlines

Back by popular demand (of my Wife), here are your week 7 NFL headlines:

After seeing an episode of Castle, Carrie Underwood reconsiders her claim that "Al and Chris are the best on TV"

House Majority Speaker John Boehner weighs in on Redskins name controversy, asking why a sports team hasn't been called he 'Orangeskins' yet.

Single Decent drive by New York Giants proves to be too much for Minnesota Vikings to handle.

In an effort to steal more screen time, Ray Lewis tasks Steve Young to fly ahead to the City for the next 'Battle of the Unbeaten' game.

San Diego considers name change to 'Powder Blues' resulting in over 6,000 pieces of hate mail from outspoken Smurf community.

After Denver's first and only Loss, Payton Manning claims he has the rest of the NFL "Right where he wants them."

Despite the Packers arriving for the game in vintage uniforms, Browns remain the undisputed champion of most boring jerseys.

After sending nine pro bowlers to Hawaii despite a four win season last year, Chiefs quoted as expecting to send no fewer then their entire first and second string to this years Pro Bowl.

God answers Tim Tebow's prayers to hurt every quarterback on a team that would even remotely consider signing him. Tebow remains unsigned.

Patriots fans write in droves to Commissioners office about the use of obscure rule after loss to Jets. NFL office to file all complaints between existing folders for 'Tuck' and 'Irony'.

Florida passes anti-bullying law at request of thin skinned Jaguar players.

49ers fail to raise Titan's players ire with the game time taunt "Who's an immortal mythological God-like creature now?"

Ahead of next Sunday night's game, NBC plans to air 10 minute tribute to the Packers Championship teams, followed by a 12 second documentary labeled "Great Moments in Vikings Playoff history".

Eagles fans on the look out for potential third 'Quarterback of the Future' of the season.

Colts improve to 5-2, clinch AFC South.

Referees from around league to convene at the End of Thursdays Panters/Bucs game to determine if they could beat Tampa Bay if given the chance.

Vikings coaches admit a coin flip was used to determine the Vikings starting quarterback this week, Cassell called 'shirts' Freeman never showed up. Vikings decide no one deserved to play QB Monday night.

Falcons say of single score win against 0-7 Buccaneers "This is the kind of win you can hang your hat on." Team proceeds to not prepare for next week.

Ravens front office desperately looks for loopholes in Joe Flacco's contract.

Andrew Luck and Archie Manning to appear in upcoming paternity test episode of 'Murray'.



  

2013 Mock NFL Draft

I don't know the first thing about coaching or scouting in the NFL, but I am a pretty good number cruncher guy, combining several draft boards, developing an evaluation equation to give them a rating, and cross matching needs based on those ratings from Madden 12 player ratings (trying my best to account for trades, retirements, injuries, etc.) I then read up on some of the politicking going on with several teams that have several larges holes to fill. As a result, I present to you, my Mock NFL 2013 draft.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M: Winston is gone and Albert is on a one year deal, the Chiefs need to protect their new fall guy, I mean franchise quarterback.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia: A mistake in my book, numbers say Ansah, this is one where the Jags had several holes to fill on both ends of the ball, but word is the entire management staff took a field trip to West Virginia's Pro day makes me think the Jags are going to once again 'start anew' at the QB position.

3. Oakland Raiders - Shariff Floyd - DT - Florida: Trying to keep up with the roster purge that has been going on at Oakland is giving me a headache. But is looks like a high rated DT would improve their over all defensive numbers best.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Dion Jordan - OLB - Oregon : An interesting scenario, since on paper this team is very good and very well rounded. Secondary is strong up front but lacks depth, but there are no real big numbers on the top of te draft board to fill that position. If Geno is still available, he's a big possibility.

5. Detroit Lions - Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan : Cherilus is gone and Stafford will need time in the pocket if the Lions are going to do anything this season.

6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Millener - CB - Alabama : Needs abound, a good Offensive Lineman would be good numbers wise, but the top 2 are already off my board, a QB pick may be in the works, but not many strong options there either. A strong CB to go with their off season pick up Kruger at the pass rush can make the Browns strong against a pass heavy team.

7. Arizona Cardinals - Ezekial Ansah - DB - BYU: Not a great collection of big numbers ratings wise on the offensive side, but the single best pick up at this point is another pass rusher to assist Acho.

8. Buffalo Bills - Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama: I could see this pick getting traded because I think the best player to improve the Bills will still be available outside the top 12 picks, perhaps Miami wants to slide up. That withstanding, the Bills seem to eyeing Manuel from FSU, but he's almost guaranteed to be around in round 2. Using their first round to bolster the O-Line makes sense.

9. New York Jets - Star Lotulelei - DT - Utah: Among others, Nose Tackle Pouha needs replacing, and their stop gap Garay isn't going to cut it. Lotulrlei did have a scare with a heart issue that appears to have been resolved.

10. Tennessee Titans - Xavier Rhodes - CB - FSU: A Rush heavy team that needs lineman, they may be willing to move up a few spots if they feel they are being left our of one of the better OL draft classes. If they can't their passing defense game is very sub-par.

11. San Diego Chargers - Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma: Going out on my own here, Gaiter's rating is falling but more glaring are stories that the Chargers want to dump him and his $18 million owed all together. Leaving a huge hole in the O-Line of the Chargers. With so many lineman going early it may be hard to move him though.

12. Miami Dolphins - Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington: Big potential to jump up the board to grab Rhodes or Millener from a top 10 pick team. They also have a big need at the O-Line (haven't heard that one, right?) Truth is Miami's biggest needs are close match to where some of the highest rated players are in this draft.

13. New York Jets (From Buccaneers) - Barkevious Mingo, OLB - LSU: Jets just gave up a top shelf Secondary coverage guy and need to bolster their defense.

14. Panthers - Sheldon Richardson - DT - Alabama: All around strong defensive player can assist Pantehers line in several ways.

15. New Orleans Saints - Jarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia: Rumor is Saints are changing to a 3-4 defense and will need to pick up a solid OLB to make it work.

16. St. Louis Rams - Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia: Funny how a team like West Virginia is able to produce two top tier players. But loosing Jackson is going to put a lot of pressure on Bradford. Either try and replace him or go for a play maker at Receiver, and Austin is the best player available at those two spots. Adding Long to the O-Line seems to say they are trying to give Bradford what he needs to succeed.

17. Pittsburg Steelers - Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame : Spurred by the two previous picks eating up their best options, Steelers will go for another pass option to compliment Brown.

18. Dallas Cowboys - Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas: Cowboys love their Cornerbacks  but right now they have a hole at either Safety position.

19. New York Giants - D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama: Giants are going to have some big needs in the next year or two with some big contracts expiring, but their biggest need for this year is some top tier Linemen, Fluker is best still on board.

20. Chicago Bears - Alec Ogletree - OLB - Georgia: A controversial pick to be sure, but the Bears have no shyed away from players with off field issues before. Ogletree has the ability to be a premiere Linebacker that the Bears need, even if they have to shuffle some guys around to put him on the outside. A solid OL like North Carolins's Cooper could be a safer choice.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Matt Elam - SS - Florida: The Bengals had modest pick ups in Linebacker and Runningback positions the past couple of weeks, leaving a Safety their biggest need by far. 

22. St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) - Eric Reid - FS: Having bolstered their big play offense, now it's time to address a defensive need.

23. Minnesota Vikings - Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee: With the Colt's needs not matching up much with Minnesota's and another pick in two slots, this one is interchangeable with #25, Two biggest needs for Minnesota, a Middle Linebacker and something to replace Harvey with.

24. Indianapolis Colts - Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama: If a top lineman makes it through this far they may try to improve that, but a runningback who doesn't need a lot of touches to be effective could be priceless to the Colts. 

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seahawks) - Manti Te'o - MLB - Notre Dame: Filling the biggest need of the Vikings.

26. Green Bay Packers - Jonathan Cypriun - S - Florida International: Cursing the Bengals for snagging their Woodson replacement, the Packers will look for this plus defender to upgrade their D.

27. Houston Texans - DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson: Houstons Offensive weapons are starting to get ripe, time to pluck some new talent.

28. Denver Broncos - Cornellius Carradine - DE - Florida State: Opps, Denver suddenly has a huge need for a defensive superstar, their specific need for a linebacker isn't enough to pass up on a potential star in Carradine.

29. New England Patriots - Johnthan Banks - CB - Mississippi State: One of the best Offenses in the league still gives up too many big plays down field.

30. Atlanta Falcons - D.J. Hayden - CB - Houston: Dodging a bullet with Gonzalez coming back makes this Atlanta's biggest 'now' need.

31. San Francisco 49ers - Jesse Williams - DT - Alabama: All Star linebacker core need a little help up front.

32. Baltamore Ravens - Kevin Minter - ILB - LSU: Lots of holes on defense now, this is the best player on boards to replace Ray Lewis.

There ya go, as with any mock draft, one of the top three picks will probably be a surprise that throws the entire board into disarray, but I'm pretty confident that about 3/4'ths of this board is accurate to the position at least. I'm just hoping someone takes a chance with A.J. Klein, Go Cyclones!

 I swear I'll get back to ranting about politics soon.

2012 Liberty Bowl

From early season winners to Post Season contenders, a far too rare rematch of Conference USA champions, the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes, and my Alma Mater, the Iowa State Cyclones.

How cool of a match up is this? Hurricanes versus Cyclones. The words ring with a sense of epic implications that excite me on a plateau that surprised even myself when you consider this is a match up against a team that we have already cut our teeth against and won early in the season.

The Golden Hurricane seemed to be in control with a 16-7 lead after the opening quarter. Iowa State then took command by scoring 24 unanswered points. Shontrelle Johnson, who will be out for the bowl game, ran for a career-high 120 yards and a touchdown in that victory while senior Steele Jantz, who has since been sidelined for freshmen Sam Richardson, passed for two TDs.

Iowa State's new QB Sam Richardson in his last two games has accumulated an impressive 161 QB rating, but his biggest feat has been 58 pass attempts without an interception, compared to Steele's 24 attempts/INT or the other quarterback Barnett, who has several starts between this and last season, throwing an INT for every 27 attempts. Iowa State fans are hopeful that protecting the ball will be the key to a Cyclone victory this time around.

Tulsa, meanwhile, will lean on their 11th Nationally ranked rush offense to bring home a Liberty Bowl trophy. Fueled by a duel running back threat of Watts with 959 rushing yards and Douglas with 857, the Iowa State D-Line will have their hands full as they are still missing senior All Big-12 Line Backer Jack Knott.

The Iowa State Defense will have to force some plays in the air and then come up with some big plays and turnovers defensively to prevent Tulsa from setting the pace of the game with slow and steady running drives,   and Tulsa will have to get pressure on the young Iowa State QB to prevent them from running up the score early. In the end, I think a very talented Senior class from Iowa State will be hungry to end their collegiate careers on a high note, and the list of notes for Tulsa is a lot more complete then Iowa State's new look offense, and Iowa State will hold on to a 34-24 Cyclone victory. 

Oh yeah, and one more thing, guess who have 2 thumbs and going to the big game? This guy right here!

  

Football Experts vs. the ABC's

The experts are up by 3 games, read on to understand what I mean...

If you came to this page looking for the latest insight into who should start week 8 in your fantasy league, I have to apologize, as that what I'll be discussion here has very little to do with that.

What this post is about is how I was enamored the other day when I was looking at the NFL Power Rankings posted on the ESPN website. And how, after flipping through the weeks a couple times, I drew the conclusion...

These guys have no idea what they are talking about...

I approach these rankings in a pretty simplistic way, the better of a team you are, the higher you go up on the rankings scale. Pretty simple concept, right? I also make the leap of logic that, more times then not, the team that is rated higher in the preceding week should probably win the following week if they play a lower ranked team. Sure, there will be upsets, that's why you play the game, but I figure if ESPN is going through the effort of recalculating these things like a Garmin every week, and since when the #1 power ranked Texans fell to the Packers in week 6 the Packers didn't just automatically become the #1 team, there are many factors that are weighed into this system, by experts, that should give you a good indication on who will win in the following week.

I put this logic to the test.

Drafting up a pretty simple excel spreadsheet, I input the players rankings for each week, then entered in the win/loss results from each week, drafted up a simple equation that determined who was higher ranked between the two teams, and tallied up how often the ranking systems 'predicted' the winner the following week.

The results were very interesting

After week 1, they where 8 for 16, or 50%. Fair enough, new season, getting a feel for who's out their etc. Week two the same, 8 for 16. And once again in week 3. So, after 3 weeks, the power rankings predictions are holding true at 24 of 48 or an even 50%. Then whatever makes these experts started to take hold, or maybe reducing the schedule to 14 games helped out, either way the Power Ranking record went to 10 and 4 in week 4, and 9-5 the following week. Week 6 was a step in the wrong direction as they went 3-11, wiping out most of the positive gains the prior 2 weeks. But rebounded with a strong week 7 at 11-2. Again raising the question if these ranking experts are just over burdened with the number of games played week to week.

In review, after seven weeks, using these power rankings, ESPN is touting a little better then random guessing 57-46 or 55.3% winning percentage.

Better then random guessing... how can we test this?

I came up with a hypothesis  put together a random listing of teams and declare it the power rankings for the year, and see how it fairs against the 'experts' listing.

But how to generate said list. I could just make a list and make you take my word that it was random, but I needed something slightly more verifiable. In this mindset, I just took a list of the NFL teams and sorted alphabetically. Hence, with no further ado, I present my 2012-13 NFL power rankings based on absolutely nothing except he Alphabet;

1. 49ers 2. Bears 3.Bengals 4.Bills 5. Broncos 6.Browns 7.Buccaneers 8.Cardinals 9.Chargers 10. Chiefs 11. Colts 12. Cowboys 13. Dolphins 14. Eagles 15. Falcons 16.Giants 17. Jaguars 18. Jets 19. Lions 20. Packers 21. Panthers 22. Patriots 23. Raiders 24. Rams 25. Ravens 26. Redskins 27. Saints 28. Seahawks 29. Steelers 30. Texans 31. Titans 32. Vikings

Not a bad listing, got some good teams at the top, and some bad ones on the bottom, but also the Browns making the playoffs well ahead of the Texans, along with a dozen or so other improbables, pretty random.

So how do the power rankings hold up in the random scenario?

a pair of 10-6 weeks to kick things off, followed by a 7-9 and then another 10-4, so after 4 weeks, the random selection was 3 games over .500 and 3 games ahead of the 'experts'. A bad week 5 at 4-10 put them just under the power rankings, but rebounded in week 6 with a 7-7 showing, leaving it at 48-42 after 6 weeks, which was 2 games ahead of the experts. But alas, week 7 was much kinder to the experts then the random's 6-7 record. Here is the full table;

Week	Expert W	Expert L	% Correct	Random W	Random L	% Correct
1	8	8	50.0%	10*	6	62.5%
2	8	8	50.0%	10*	6	62.5%
3	8*	8	50.0%	7	9	43.8%
4	10*	4	71.4%	10*	4	71.4%
5	9*	5	64.3%	4	10	28.6%
6	3	11	21.4%	7*	7	50.0%
7	11*	2	84.6%	6	7	46.2%

*=Weekly Winner (Tie week 4)

Leaving the expert Power Rankings with a record of 57-46, and the random one at 54-49 so far on the season.

I'll post some updates to this little experiment weekly, here are the predictions for week 8

Expert predictions based on ESPN power rankings;

Vikings over Buccaneers*
Chargers over Browns*
Bears over Panthers
Seahawks over Lions*
Packers over Jaguars*
Colts over Titans
Dolphins over Jets
Patriots over Rams
Steelers over Redskins*
Falcons over Eagles*
Raiders over Chiefs*
Giants over Cowboys*
Broncos over Saints
49ers over Cardinals

*Denotes that 'random' guess picked the other team to win

If you've read this far, and like what you see, don't be afraid to 'like' or 'G+' or 'tweet' this with your friends to encourage me to keep up with this little experiment through the football season. Quick buttons are on the right margin. Thanks Everyone!