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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

2013 Mock NFL Draft

I don't know the first thing about coaching or scouting in the NFL, but I am a pretty good number cruncher guy, combining several draft boards, developing an evaluation equation to give them a rating, and cross matching needs based on those ratings from Madden 12 player ratings (trying my best to account for trades, retirements, injuries, etc.) I then read up on some of the politicking going on with several teams that have several larges holes to fill. As a result, I present to you, my Mock NFL 2013 draft.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M: Winston is gone and Albert is on a one year deal, the Chiefs need to protect their new fall guy, I mean franchise quarterback.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia: A mistake in my book, numbers say Ansah, this is one where the Jags had several holes to fill on both ends of the ball, but word is the entire management staff took a field trip to West Virginia's Pro day makes me think the Jags are going to once again 'start anew' at the QB position.

3. Oakland Raiders - Shariff Floyd - DT - Florida: Trying to keep up with the roster purge that has been going on at Oakland is giving me a headache. But is looks like a high rated DT would improve their over all defensive numbers best.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Dion Jordan - OLB - Oregon : An interesting scenario, since on paper this team is very good and very well rounded. Secondary is strong up front but lacks depth, but there are no real big numbers on the top of te draft board to fill that position. If Geno is still available, he's a big possibility.

5. Detroit Lions - Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan : Cherilus is gone and Stafford will need time in the pocket if the Lions are going to do anything this season.

6. Cleveland Browns - Dee Millener - CB - Alabama : Needs abound, a good Offensive Lineman would be good numbers wise, but the top 2 are already off my board, a QB pick may be in the works, but not many strong options there either. A strong CB to go with their off season pick up Kruger at the pass rush can make the Browns strong against a pass heavy team.

7. Arizona Cardinals - Ezekial Ansah - DB - BYU: Not a great collection of big numbers ratings wise on the offensive side, but the single best pick up at this point is another pass rusher to assist Acho.

8. Buffalo Bills - Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama: I could see this pick getting traded because I think the best player to improve the Bills will still be available outside the top 12 picks, perhaps Miami wants to slide up. That withstanding, the Bills seem to eyeing Manuel from FSU, but he's almost guaranteed to be around in round 2. Using their first round to bolster the O-Line makes sense.

9. New York Jets - Star Lotulelei - DT - Utah: Among others, Nose Tackle Pouha needs replacing, and their stop gap Garay isn't going to cut it. Lotulrlei did have a scare with a heart issue that appears to have been resolved.

10. Tennessee Titans - Xavier Rhodes - CB - FSU: A Rush heavy team that needs lineman, they may be willing to move up a few spots if they feel they are being left our of one of the better OL draft classes. If they can't their passing defense game is very sub-par.

11. San Diego Chargers - Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma: Going out on my own here, Gaiter's rating is falling but more glaring are stories that the Chargers want to dump him and his $18 million owed all together. Leaving a huge hole in the O-Line of the Chargers. With so many lineman going early it may be hard to move him though.

12. Miami Dolphins - Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington: Big potential to jump up the board to grab Rhodes or Millener from a top 10 pick team. They also have a big need at the O-Line (haven't heard that one, right?) Truth is Miami's biggest needs are close match to where some of the highest rated players are in this draft.

13. New York Jets (From Buccaneers) - Barkevious Mingo, OLB - LSU: Jets just gave up a top shelf Secondary coverage guy and need to bolster their defense.

14. Panthers - Sheldon Richardson - DT - Alabama: All around strong defensive player can assist Pantehers line in several ways.

15. New Orleans Saints - Jarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia: Rumor is Saints are changing to a 3-4 defense and will need to pick up a solid OLB to make it work.

16. St. Louis Rams - Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia: Funny how a team like West Virginia is able to produce two top tier players. But loosing Jackson is going to put a lot of pressure on Bradford. Either try and replace him or go for a play maker at Receiver, and Austin is the best player available at those two spots. Adding Long to the O-Line seems to say they are trying to give Bradford what he needs to succeed.

17. Pittsburg Steelers - Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame : Spurred by the two previous picks eating up their best options, Steelers will go for another pass option to compliment Brown.

18. Dallas Cowboys - Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas: Cowboys love their Cornerbacks  but right now they have a hole at either Safety position.

19. New York Giants - D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama: Giants are going to have some big needs in the next year or two with some big contracts expiring, but their biggest need for this year is some top tier Linemen, Fluker is best still on board.

20. Chicago Bears - Alec Ogletree - OLB - Georgia: A controversial pick to be sure, but the Bears have no shyed away from players with off field issues before. Ogletree has the ability to be a premiere Linebacker that the Bears need, even if they have to shuffle some guys around to put him on the outside. A solid OL like North Carolins's Cooper could be a safer choice.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Matt Elam - SS - Florida: The Bengals had modest pick ups in Linebacker and Runningback positions the past couple of weeks, leaving a Safety their biggest need by far. 

22. St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) - Eric Reid - FS: Having bolstered their big play offense, now it's time to address a defensive need.

23. Minnesota Vikings - Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee: With the Colt's needs not matching up much with Minnesota's and another pick in two slots, this one is interchangeable with #25, Two biggest needs for Minnesota, a Middle Linebacker and something to replace Harvey with.

24. Indianapolis Colts - Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama: If a top lineman makes it through this far they may try to improve that, but a runningback who doesn't need a lot of touches to be effective could be priceless to the Colts. 

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seahawks) - Manti Te'o - MLB - Notre Dame: Filling the biggest need of the Vikings.

26. Green Bay Packers - Jonathan Cypriun - S - Florida International: Cursing the Bengals for snagging their Woodson replacement, the Packers will look for this plus defender to upgrade their D.

27. Houston Texans - DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson: Houstons Offensive weapons are starting to get ripe, time to pluck some new talent.

28. Denver Broncos - Cornellius Carradine - DE - Florida State: Opps, Denver suddenly has a huge need for a defensive superstar, their specific need for a linebacker isn't enough to pass up on a potential star in Carradine.

29. New England Patriots - Johnthan Banks - CB - Mississippi State: One of the best Offenses in the league still gives up too many big plays down field.

30. Atlanta Falcons - D.J. Hayden - CB - Houston: Dodging a bullet with Gonzalez coming back makes this Atlanta's biggest 'now' need.

31. San Francisco 49ers - Jesse Williams - DT - Alabama: All Star linebacker core need a little help up front.

32. Baltamore Ravens - Kevin Minter - ILB - LSU: Lots of holes on defense now, this is the best player on boards to replace Ray Lewis.

There ya go, as with any mock draft, one of the top three picks will probably be a surprise that throws the entire board into disarray, but I'm pretty confident that about 3/4'ths of this board is accurate to the position at least. I'm just hoping someone takes a chance with A.J. Klein, Go Cyclones!

 I swear I'll get back to ranting about politics soon.


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