The Third Debate

It's been a couple days, and I've already been asked "What did you think of the last debate?" or "Where is your blog post about the third debate?" Here is my short answer;

It didn't matter...

Sure, I tuned in hoping to see some sparring and some red in the face back to back. But Romney did something that some people predicted and many people already in his corner. He played it safe. Why? Not because he was afraid of looking like a fool or putting his foot in his mouth, but because the foreign policy debate is transcending a 90 minute forum. In the papers yesterday it was discovered that Obama knew exactly how the attacks in Benghazi went down hours before he went into the Rose Garden and spewed some crap about a YouTube video and showing respect for others religion.

In this sense, it was a boring debate.

Which is fine, the truth of the matter is that between game seven for the Nation League Pennant and Monday Night football playing all at the same time on cable, there where millions of people that just decided to skip this debate. The conditions were right to not have a terrible impact on the election. A better question, that I've been asking for weeks, is when, where, and how did Obama get this narrative of blaming the death of Americans on an act of free speech. If Romney had jumped in with this question, I'm sure Obama would have been ready with some deflection of "We spoke on the intel that we had at the time, and as Candy pointed out in the last debate, I did identify this as a terrorist attach...". Or some sort of statement that skirts the edges of truth on the latter point and now with these emails being exposed blasts the truth to bits on the former point.

This debate didn't matter. Romney supporters liked Romney, Obama supporters liked Obama, and the four or five people that are undecided were busy watching the Bears and Lions game. I recommend watching the news to get the real story of where this countries foreign policy has gotten us in the past four years.

To make it up to some of you that came here for some quick wit or a good laugh and feel a bit cheated, I did come up with some whimsical titles for ya, enjoy!

Debate 2 Cheat Sheet

IT could be a pretty lady, a train wreck, or a squirrel, something will distract all of us at some point during tonight's debate. Save yourself some embarrassment by using my cheat sheet guide to tonight's debate.

	President Obama		Governor Romney
Question	What he will say	What he won’t say	What he will say	What he won’t say
What will you do for the working classes tax burden?	“I Believe in a ‘middle out’ approach that strengthens the middle class by reducing their tax burden.”	“My temporary tax cuts for the middle class weren’t paid for, as a result, I’m shaving years off the solvency of Social Security and Medicare. “	“My tax plan to reduce the rate by 20% will not add to the deficit. And I have 6 reports that support this.”	“The only way this plan won’t result in a deficit is if it stimulates a 4+% growth in the economy, a rate we haven’t seen since the 90’s”
What is your plan to strengthen the Economy?	“We must invest in infrastructure, and make sure our schools and police departments are adequately funded.”	I've been saying this for 4 years, my budgets have assumed record growth as a result, I've never been right."	"Removing needless obstructions to small business that are the life blood of our economy."	Specifics... Specifics... Specifics...
How will you keep America Safe?	“Let me be perfectly clear, the US will not tolerate any attempts of violence on us or our allies.”	“We will continue with drone strikes that are causing hundreds of deaths in collateral damage.”	“I will not cut the Military by $2 Trillion Dollars over the next 10 years.”	“These cuts were part of a deal to begin to rein in spending, and I have no plan to make up the difference, other then to grow out of it.”
What could have gone better in Benghazi?	“We could have improved relations with the Muslim people.”	"I will never say where Ambassador Rice and I got our initial story from that this attack was a result of a YouTube video."	"I will stop the culture of America apologizing for everything that America has done."	"...which does nothing to address the current problem which has no easy solution, but whatever Obama is doing ain't working."
How will you address Healthcare?	"I will continue to close the doughnut holes in Medicare, and help ensure our seniors get the care that's been promised to them."	"The Medicare surplus will be dried up by 2016, The CBO has added trillions to the cost of ObamaCare, and I have no plan other then to keep borrowing money to continue this program."	"My plan will keep the parts of ObamaCare that are popular while infusing the private sector to hlp control costs."	"You'll be dealing with insurance companies until the day you die and then some. Why don't you like me plan?"
Why should American’s Vote for you?	"Because we can not return to the policies that got us into this mess in the first place. We must continue to move Forward."	Any answer that actually makes you want to vote FOR me.	"The President said in his own words that if he didn't have this figured out in 3 years, it would be a one term proposition."	Any answer that actually makes you want to vote FOR me.

The Hot Air from Delaware

"Well, we weren't told they wanted more security there. We did not know they wanted more security again. And by the way, at the time we were told exactly — we said exactly what the intelligence community told us that they knew. That was the assessment. And as the intelligence community changed their view, we made it clear they changed their view." -Joe Biden 10/11/2012

One can make statements that are analyzed by experts and nit picked apart. I have 6 reports that say this, well, I have 3 reports that say differently. You promised this, No! I just proposed a plan that said it would happen. This is in many regards the core of what politics is about, proposing your side of an argument and make it sound like fact. However, what Joe Biden said last night on prime time television make me throw up my arms are scream "LIAR!"

I know, I know, Paul Ryan lies and misrepresents too. He says "The President said unemployment won't go over 8%..." which he never actually said he just put a report on the table that said it and said "Here is my plan". Joe Biden says "Your tax plan will cost $5 Trillion..." again, Mitt never said anything of the sort, but the Tax Policy Center had a report that said Here is Mitt Romney's Plan. We can chase our tails on these half truths and reports and who is calling what a Fact and who is calling what a Liar, odds are the other side has something to point to that contradicts the other and makes their side cheer and scream "Atta Boy!"

Even the moderator Mrs. Radditz said right before Joe's comment "And they wanted more security there.". I have found transcripts here, here, here, here, and none of them have a '?' after that statement. Watch the video, it was a statement by the moderator, NOT A QUESTION.

Why was this not a question, because just two days prior, under oath, before congress;

“We felt great frustration that those requests were ignored or just never met,” Lt. Col. Andrew Wood, a Utah National Guardsman who was leading a security team in Libya until August.

AND

“In those conversations, I was specifically told [by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Charlene Lamb] ‘You cannot request an SST extension.’ I determined I was told that because there would be too much political cost. We went ahead and requested it anyway.” The top regional security officer in Libya over the summer, Eric Nordstrom, testified.

AND

Emails that there was denials in security requests. This is not a discussion of whether or not it would have made a difference, it is a question of was there requests made.

AND

Common sense, there are dozens of events that took place in Benghazi this summer that you think would make most people go "Hmmm... maybe we shouldn't pull our military forces out a month before 9/11."



Deep Breaths...

Ok, Fine, so Joe doesn't work at the State Department, these e-mails and requests don't need his signature to be enacted. Obama must have been so engrossed in those PDB's that Joe could never snag them away from him. They probably don;t bother putting things like online threats, Car jackings, IED's being left at our embassies front door, and our allies getting rocketed and them leaving the area in those things anyway, it's probably loaded up with Fantasy Football numbers and Golf Course weather reports instead. I guess that means that our new foreign policy reads a little something like this;

In the event of an attack on US citizens or our interests abroad, someone should probably tell somebody. If in the event that somebody doesn't get back to them, someone else should really be held accountable, should that person be at that time indisposed, then let it be determined that, in the best interest of the United States, the Commander in Chief shall take it upon himself to fly out to Vegas, and let it ride on lucky 17.

“The entire reason that this has become the political topic it is, is because of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan” — Obama Deputy Campaign Director Stephanie Cutter 10/11/12.

"I have seen that report, and the story is absolutely wrong. We were not aware of any actionable intelligence indicating that an attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi was planned or imminent. That report is false." Press Secretary Jay Carney 9/14/12.

"I have a sense that the liberal community is going to be very satisfied with what Joe Biden delivered tonight. He was detailed, he was passionate, he made people believe that he cares about the country and had confidence in which way this administration wants to take the country." MSNBC News Commentator Ed Shultz 10/11/12.

"The men and women who risk their lives in the service of our country are heroes. I know and served with many of our security professionals in Libya and around the world. They are my friends and colleagues. And I trust them with my life." Under Secretary of State for Management Pat Kennedy 10/10/2012.

Shameful, absolutely shameful.

Colorado goes to Romney

But probably not the way you thinking...

Last week an aggressive Mitt Romney, on a stage at the University of Denver, became the source of an outpouring of good news for the challenger, and upsetting news for the incumbent. As it turns out, this is not the first time this election that some bad news has come out of the Centennial State for the President.

Back in August, A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.This model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

Bicker/Berry Model

It not only predicts Romney winning the electoral college, but by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered. This s accomplished by having Romney win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Leaving Nevada and Iowa as the only swing states still going to Obama.

“What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” said Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder.

Bickers and Berry, the professors that built this model, cautioned that their model used economic data from June, 2012. They intend to update their calculations when new data become available in September.

Well, October is here and the September data is available. Now, an updated version of their study has come to the same conclusion — but it intensifies the numbers behind a predicted Romney win.

Since the debate last week, polls have shown a statistically dead-heat race (Obama is currently at 48.2 percent, with Romney capturing 47.3 percent of likely voters in the most recent Real Clear Politics average), an updated election model shows an even larger gap between the Electoral College votes that Romney and Obama are projected to win. According to Bickers and Berry, Mitt Romney is now projected to take 330 of the 558 votes, according to their model, while Obama is expected to capture only 208 of them.

Is it time to announce a winner this election? Absolutely not! Obviously the polling is still unfavorable, though much closer. And with three debates remaining and a lower, though questionable, unemployment rate, the case is being made that this election could go any which direction. And to make a nod to the elephant in the room, this election will not follow so many of the rules created by previous rules, and I think the reason is pretty obvious. I'll take a lot of flack for saying this, but I must. Romney may not be able to defeat Obama because of the fact that Romney is a Mormon. </sarcasm>

Debate Recap

I had a good night sleep, I woke up, took a quick shower, and noticed an odd growth on my leg, but I digress. It's time to take a few minutes and reflect on how the debate went last night.

Overall, I think it is pretty obvious that Mitt Romney carried the night, in the first 15 minutes Obama I believe used his infamous "Uhh..." thinking sound about 300 times, but there was a reason, at least in part, for this. Mitt Romney never gave Obama the ammunition he needed to attack his plans. He still hasn't, not really. When Obama started a line of attack about Romney's plan to cut taxes by $5 Trillion taxes, Romney was able to counter by saying that wasn't his plan at all, and then go into a fairly simple argument about cutting loopholes and broadening the base that would result in roughly the same revenue. This was a narrative of Romney's plan that hasn't really been put out there and it made it difficult for Obama to really pick it apart.

"...I'm not looking for a $5 trillion tax cut. What I've said is I won't put in place a tax cut that adds to the deficit. That's part one. So there's no economist that can say Mitt Romney's tax plan adds $5 trillion if I say I will not add to the deficit with my tax plan..." - Romney

As a more than likely Romney voter, it did disappoint me that we got little more then a taste as to what ta loopholes Romney would cut to make his across the board cuts feasable. He hinted at lowering the standard deduction, at reducing exemptions for higher wage earners, and putting the focus on making things easier on small businesses, but it's a long way from specifics. I would venture to say he doesn't want to be hindered by campaign promises while tackling this issue, but the same could be said for campaign assurances that he is trying to pass of as his plan currently.

This sums it up, Obama still ahead, but Romney won the Debate

Make no mistake though, the dance the Romney did around details of his plan paled in comparison to Obama's plan which has been heard before, in many cases been tried before, and worst of all sounds near impatient when he tries to make the case that his current policies are actually working. At one point he tried to make the case he was emulating the plans of the late 90's where we had massive expansion, jobs were plentiful, and the deficit disappeared  The obvious flaw with this narrative is that we are NOT having massive economic expansion, jobs are very scarce, and we have spent record amounts of money in the process. In my eyes, it makes the President come across as arrogant and pompous.

"...Bill Clinton tried the approach that I'm talking about. We created 23 million new jobs. We went from deficit to surplus. And businesses did very well. So, in some ways, we've got some data on which approach is more likely to create jobs and opportunity for Americans..." - Obama

The simple fact of this debate is, that Obama looked tired and week compared to a Romney that looked energized, ready, and eager to tackle these problems. I was a bit frightened toward the end that Romeny started to have a bit of that 'foaming at the mouth' aspect too him by interrupting and talking over Jim, but then this happened;

OBAMA: Now, the last point I'd make before ...

LEHRER: Two minutes -- two minutes is up, sir.

OBAMA: No, I think -- I had five seconds before you interrupted me, was ...

Then he proceeded to speak for another minute or so. Suddenly, my mind went from a tired and un-engaged Obama to a frustrated Obama, the body language shifted back to Romney's favor, and no amount of Big Bird tweets would correct it.

To address the elephant in the room, let's call him Snuffleupagus, the Big Bird joke was brought up back in January. My personal thought is most people that are acting like this is a slip are just a little behind on the times. I'd also note that many people are talking about the tragedy of loosing Big Bird, not if the government should be financing a broadcast channel that gets next to no ratings.

In other news, Jobless Claims are back up from the prior week, Unemployment is still over 8%, Labor participation is at 30 year lows, and we are still spending $8 Billion dollars a day we don't have.

Fast Facts;

Obvious Looser of the Debate

Mentions of the word(s):
Tax - 109
Jobs - 41
President - 97
Governor - 76
Please - 5
Sorry - 5
I wouldn't be a perfect President - 1

Number of tweets under #Debates/#Debates2012: 10.3 Million

Balance of time: Romney - 38 1/2 Minutes, Obama - 43 Minutes

The Debate Drinking Game

This past winter, during the President's state of the union speech, I tried something new and exciting; The State of the Union Drinking Game.

The premise was simple, pour yourself two drinks, my preference was a classic margarita in one glass, and a strawberry margarita in another. Whenever President Obama says the word "Hope", I took a swig of the classic margarita, and whenever he said "Change", a swig of the strawberry. I had to check the official transcript since I didn't keep an accurate count, I just know that I was still recognizing things afterwards and didn't have to call in sick to work. Hope = 2, Change =8 (and I counted hopeful as 1).

This Wednesday I plan on continuing my own little tradition of making politicking a little less painful by continuing my tradition. Current plan is to use a couple left over Mike's from this weekend of tailgating in Ames, IA. Peach Margarita Mike's will be when one of the candidates says something close to the statement "My opponent want's you to believe..." or "My opponent says that..." basically the idea of putting words in their opponents mount starting with the statement "My opponent...". A Raspberry Mike's will be used when the line "Under my Plan..." or some close rendition there-abouts.

The objective here is simple, to feel better about myself and the path of the country by the time the debate is over using God's greatest gift to mankind to bypass the need to actually believe what the candidates say and  having a good feeling about what is going to happen to the nation under the guidance of either of these men. If this means having to hover a toilet for the successive several hours and missing a day of work, so be it. You never know, maybe one of these fine gents will inspire me and completely change my perspective about this election, but depending on how active they are with my preceding set of rules, I may or may not even remember if they did.

The Debate

Mo Derator: Good evening, and welcome to the first Presidential debate of the 2012 election. My name is Mo Derator, and I will be asking the questions for tonight’s debate. When I ask a question of one of the candidates, they will have one minute to answer, then their opponent will be granted a thirty second rebuttal time. When their time expires they will be interrupted with a buzzer sound, like this; <BUZZ!!>

MO: Now, please join me in welcoming our two candidates. President Barrack Obama, and Former Governor Mitt Romney.

<The two candidates enter the stage to the crowd's applause.>

MO: Good evening, Mr. President.

Barrack Obama: (Looking back and forth to his left and right): Uhhh… I think there may be an issue here.

MO: There is no issue Mr. President, this is a debate, you do not get teleprompters.

BO: Ah, I see, well then, let me just start off by saying it’s great to be back in whatever swing state this is.

MO: We are in West Virginia, Mr. President.

BO: Oh no! <turns to crowd>  I'm not black! Just really tan! Please don't shoot with your guns or pelt me with your Bibles!

MO: I assure you, you are quit safe <turns to Gov. Mitt Romney> And a good evening to you, Governor.

Mitt Romney: It's a pleasure to be here Mo, may I call you Mo? The most amazing thing happened on the way in here, you have these doors on the outside of the arena, I found myself looking quite foolish waiting for one of my butlers to open the doors for me, but it turns out there is this sensor, really neat stuff, and the door opens up for you.

MO: You mean it was an automatic door?

MR: Yes, that is what they call it, really incredible what can happen when American innovation is unleashed.

MO: Very good, their inventors from fifty years ago express their gratitude. Let's get to the questions. First, to the challenger, Governor Romney, millions of Americans are feeling the hardships of a struggling economy, what is your plan to turn it around.

MR: I'm glad you asked, this is a time for people to get serious about our challenges. People come up to me and they say, 'Hey Mitt, you have a great head of hair, what would you due to turn this economy around?' and I say to them, I say 'Average citizen, if we just do the things we do in business everyday, in business, you have to balance a budget, if you don't, you loose money, if you loose money, you go broke, if you go broke, you stop being able to buy things, if you can't buy things, you can't buy paper to print out a budget, and then what is the point? So, what I ask to you, and to my opponent, is this, where did all the paper go?

BO: If I may, I believe that falls on you Mitt, you exported 200 paper mill jobs to a call center in India, had we kept those jobs in whatever swing state they where in, I'm confident, that we would have an abundance of paper, for not only the wealthy like my opponent, and myself <Mitt chuckles to himself>, but for the working families of this great nation.

MO: How very un-enlightening. Mr. President, you spoke of wealth, would you explain to the American people your plan on taxes?

BO: I'd love to! You see, my opponent wants to make the middle class pay more, so that he can pay a lot less. An independent council, and by that I mean I didn't hire them, ran some numbers, and it turns out, that if Mitt passes a $250,000 tax cut for himself, and people like me <Mitt continues to chuckle> then you know what? It would take about 250 American families paying right around $1000 a year more each to pay for it. We tried this once. It didn't work. It's what got us into this mess in the first place! And now, they want us to hand over the keys. Well I say to that, you can help push us out of the ditch, but one of us has to stay in the car, to, you know, hold on to the steering wheel and signal our intentions to the other cars on the road, so I say to my republican colleagues, to get out and uhhhhh.... <BUZZ!>

MO: I'm sorry Mr. President, your time has expired

BO: May I just finish my last thought there.

MO: If the Governor will yield the time

MR: Oh sure, take it away, uncle money bags. <laughs outloud>

BO: Thank you, as I was saying, in conclusion, uhhh... push. Thank you.

MO: Governor Romney, your response.

MR: First of all, I just want to say you are hilarious, I mean, wealthy like you <Romney pulls a wad of hundred from his pocket and wipes a few tears of laughter from his eyes, then casually tosses the bills aside> I have put together a simple, straight forward, 57 point plan to reduce taxes for everyone, and balance the budget. Step one; cut taxes for everyone, step two; buy a race horse for Ann, step three; but a yacht for Tagg, step four; buy a hot air balloon for Ben...

MO: I'm sorry Governor, perhaps for the sake of time we can fast forward past the parts of your plan that involve buying lavish gifts for your family.

MR: Certainly Mo, can I call you Mo? So, let's see, that would be <counts quietly to himself> yes, step fifty-seven; balance the budget. Thank you.

MO: Thank you Governor Romney. The next question is a two part one for you Governor, the President has taken some controversial steps to allow immigrants who came to this country as minors stay in this country legally, Governor, would you reverse these actions? And, what immigration plan would you put into action?

MR: Well, Mo, may I call you Mo? I would undo the presidents policy and enact a policy of self deportation, that is, hire these minors to arrest their own parents and ship both themselves, and their parents back to Mexico, or whatever third world country the Mexican's call home.

MO: And you aren't afraid that would be considered insensitive?

MR: What do you mean?

MO: The imagery of a teenager arresting their own mother might be shocking to some people.

MR: Because... of what... the teenager... is... wearing?

MO: Because of the brutality they would impose on a member of their own family.

MR: Oh family, I am very much in favor of a traditional family!

MO: <shakes head> Mr. President, can you defend your recent actions on immigration.

BO: What state are we in again?

MO: West Virginia, Mr. President.

BO: <Looks into the crowd> No, I can not, but to those Latino families watching at home in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, you are welcome!

MO: Let's move on to national security. Mr. President, how do you respond to people saying that you are weak on defense?

BO: Weak on defense? I am so far from weak on defense! Who started a secret Cyber War on Iran, who started a secret Drone War on Libya, this guy right here! And the best part is, we won't make any new enemies abroad because no one knows it's us doing it!

MR: I once saved a business that sold weapons overseas, created over 900 jobs for the great state of Massachusetts. But under this President, the company had to be shut down because of Obama Care back in 2005.

MO: The American Care Act was passed in 2009, I believe you mean your Healthcare act you passed in Massachusetts.

MR: Another distortion. I had actually left the office of Governor back in 2004 to save a whale that was trapped under a sheet of ice in Alaska, and it's only pool of water that it could use to breath was slowly freezing over due to reverse global warming, I think they made a movie about it. I had to open up 3 new factories right on the ice shelf to increase the global warming in that area, created 2000 jobs, saved the whales. Afterwards the factories sank into the ocean because they were built atop of the ice that they was melting, luckily, I wrote off the $30 million on my taxes and collected $40 million in management fees, it was a modestly profitable Tuesday, and I am not ashamed of what I earned, and I will defend Bain Capital for the decisions it made.

BO: What about the 600,000 layoffs at Bain owned companies between 2000 and 2002?

MR: That was during a remodeling at Bain, new toilets and such, even got a new name! They called themselves, Bane. Totally different company, I don't know what was going on there during that time, I left my dear old, but totally incompetent, friend Frank in charge during that time.

BO: When are you going to step up and stop passing blame on to your predecessors?

MO: Predecessor? Don't you mean successors?

BO: Uhh.. Mo, Bush was not my successor.

MR: Precisely my point. If the state was empowered, then Obamacare would never have passed. That's why we need to repeal this terrible law.

MO: That statement doesn't really make any sense governor.

OB: If I may interject here. This is what I'm talking about. This is what makes America great. When we all come together and sit around eating gluten free apple pie and some frozen yogurt made by my beautiful wife Michelle.

MO: Again, Mr. President, that statement really fit into the context of the discussion, and I would have to say we drifted off the topic pretty dramatically. In fact I have lost track of the questions entirely so why don't we move on to closing statements, first to you Mr. Romney.

MR: Thank you Mo, may I call you Mo? We are at a historic point in American history. We have the opportunity to do what we have never done before. To vote an African American president out of office, never been done before. I understand that people may not want to do that, I mean look at him! He's tall, dark, handsome, heck, I'd vote for him. So, this election day, I hope, you vote for change.

MO: And to you, Mr. President.

BO: Thank you. Folks, I know times are tough out there. I know that many of you are having troubles making ends meet. You worry about keeping food on your table, and keeping the lights on. Putting gas in your car. You have concerns about terrorists entering this country, some of you are even worried about your rights diminishing due to actions taken in Washington. You've lost faith in the system, and you can't trust what your leaders are telling you. You feel as though we are never going to stop this economical and social down spiral. That we are at risk for being the first generation that will leave things worse off for our children. To all the critics and skeptics out there, I can put your worries to rest with this one simple truth, and that is...<BUZZ!>

MO: My apologies, but we are all out of time, I'd like to thank Governor Romney and President Obama. This is Mo Derator with Kurmudkin News signing off. Good night.

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