Who's Buying Elections?

It's as sure as the sun rising, Democrats claiming that GOP candidates are trying to buy elections with outside money from billionaire donors and PAC's, yet thanks to campaign finance disclosure requirements, we can see that Republicans aren't the only ones with deep-pocketed friends.

The latest disclosures to the Federal Election Commission indicate the 2014 race for campaign cash is a little different then what a typical voter may think.

In fact, Democrats are actually outpacing Republicans when it comes to total fundraising for the political parties and their committees. Senate Democrats have out raised Senate Republicans, $111 million to $82.5 million. House Democrats are ahead of House Republicans, $146 million to $113 million. Over $60 million dollars difference.

And in my home state of Iowa, that statement is especially prevalent, with Republican Joni Ernst being out raised by Democrat Bruce Braley $2.5 million to $7.1 million.

But it is independent expenditures by outside groups that really rile up the likes of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Reid has been railing against the libertarian-leaning billionaire Koch brothers for years. They have pledged to spend some $290 million this year to elect conservatives. But Reid's fundraising juggernaut, the Senate Majority PAC, plans to spend $46 million by itself to thwart Republican rivals.

Also, the Democracy Alliance, a coalition of 180 progressive groups and individual millionaire and billionaire liberals who gathered in Chicago this spring to make so-called investment recommendations to their members. They have pledged to spend more than $374 million to help defeat Republicans.

What's more, the AFL-CIO by itself has pledged to spend an additional $300 million to help elect Democrats.

That's not all. In the 10 Senate races where the most outside money's been spent, liberal groups have spent $97 million compared with $79 million for conservative groups.

The Center for Responsive Politics calculates that liberal outside groups have spent $126 million for Democrats and against Republicans this year -- while conservative groups have spent $114.7 million for the opposing purpose.

Add this all up, and you have coffers for Democrats and their supporting groups that well outpace anything that Republican candidates have been able to gin up, by 9 digit margins. The Koch Brothers appear to be less about giving Republican soft money some un-American advantage, and more about trying to let Republicans keep pace.

So let's scratch those evil rich republicans buying elections off the list of reasons why Democrats are going to loose the Senate this midterm. Do not fret, that still leaves the ;War on Women' and the 'Race Card'.

Personal Top 10 for 2014

A list of the ten things that I am personally excited about in the coming year;

10. Business Traveling - For the first time I get to leave the state on someone else's dime. Well, not counting that time I got married and my parents sent me away with the new misses to Florida. That was pretty awesome also. Hopefully it will just as much fun when you are expected to work every day and your wife is alone back at home.

9. The next season on The Walking Dead - Or more precisely the second half of the current season. Having read most of the published comics I have a pretty good idea of where the story may be going, but the show deviates enough to keep you guessing what it's going to do next.

8. Getting out onto the golf course - I feel like for the first time in a long time, my overall game took a step forward last summer after sporting some new clubs. Hoping to build off that so I can stop using my toes to tally up my score on every hole.

7. Midterm Elections - I'll call up Vegas and place some heavy bets that not a lot is going to change in congress, probably retain 95% of them. Also, what margin will Branstad win his seemingly millionth re-election bid. Who doesn't love to see Democracy in action?

6. Whatever movie Marvel comes out with - Not since Star Wars do I believe a movie franchise raised expectations and engrossed so many geeks then what Disney/Marvel have been able to do with the Avengers universe. Captain America and Guardians of the Galaxy both look pretty epic!

5. My wellness test scores in the spring - As is the trend in many places, my place of work has hired a bunch of people that are not doctors to come in and tell us how unhealthy we are under the threat of higher insurance premiums and having to sit through a full year of 'life coaching' if we do not hit certain metrics. For the most part I pass these tests, but last year, despite my overall scare clearing the level where I could be classified as 'healthy' They decided my cholesterol was too high and stuck me in their program anyway. I'm hoping some subtle changes this year lowered that number just enough to get me out of these awkward, borderline harassing meetings each month with a non-doctor about how I'm living my life.

4. Jacobson Family Vacation - Sounds like we are spending a weekend in Chicago again this year with the In-Laws. Hoping the Cubs don;t suddenly get good as to keep ticket prices nice and low, but then miraculously become epic-y awesome the day we catch a game.

3. Watching lots of Kernels Games - My hometown professional baseball team. The Low-A Minnesota Twins affiliate Cedar Rapids Kernels. Last year we saw Byron Buxton and Javier Baez, both of whom appear to be on pace to be huge names in 2-5 years. Can't wait to see who takes the field this year.

2. Summer - Maybe only because it's 8 below outside right now, and next week they are talking about it being 25 to 30 below before windchill with snow, but something is making me long for warmer days.

1. 5 Year Anniversary - Still don't have any plans for what we are going to do come September (and am very receptive to suggestions) It will be hard to top last years trip to Denver. I still can't believe it's been 5 years already.

Kurmudkin's 5 Predictions for 2014

It's been a fast paced end to 2013 in Washington with a long term budget deal and the beginning of the end of Quantitative Easing. Let's make some predictions on what will become of the items that we touch on regularly. Who knows, I may come to be the next clairvoyant!

1. American Care Act/ObamaCare - The Administration Predicted about 3 million people would sign up through the exchanges by the December 15th, December 23rd, December 24th Deadline. And they appear to be well on track of a million short of that goal, and the grand total by the end of the open enrollment period was expected to be 9 million enrolled by the end of open enrollment in March. Regardless of the 5 million plus people who lost their insurance as a result of the ACA. Prediction: Total enrollment including State exchanges will be around 7 million, leaving a very modest 2 million people more covered in 2014 then in 2013, dropping the uninsured percentage in America from 15% to 14.3%. Making it glaringly obvious that this was all worth it.

2. Midterm Elections - Despite more grandstanding over the ACA and Debt Ceiling, some level of spin will permeate the population and help avoid any significant losses for the Democrats. The old tried and true method of creating a national narrative painting Republicans as obstructionists and beating the drum of wage inequality will result in only a few seats gained in the Senate, the caucus will be split 50-50, giving Biden the tipping power to leave the senate in a Democrat Majority. The House will net very little change and still be held with a large Republican Majority.

3. The Economy - One of the very few good things about the budget agreement coming out of congress this past month is a degree of certainty, and since the fed has agreed to continue to spend like a drunken sailor for a least a little while longer, I think this frustratingly slow economy will resume the coarse it;s on. 3.5% GDP growth on the year, Unemployment will get down to a 6.1%, the Dow will break 17000, maybe even kiss 18000 at some point for a short while. Google stock will get to about 1800 a share but Apple will begin a slight slide this year.

4. Oscar Buzz - I don;t understand the first thing about the criteria that makes one movie win an academy award over the other, so my only bold prediction here is that whatever movie wins the best picture award will earn less then $100 million at the box office.

5. Sporting World - Broncos will win the Super Bowl, Dodgers will win the World Series, The Thunder will win the NBA finals, and nobody cares about Hockey.

See you all in 365 days to see how I did, see you then (and hopefully several times in between!)

Bonus Prediction: This Blog will clear the 21,000 page view mark.