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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The Case for Mitt Romney - Part 3

The trend lines are not pretty, since Rick Santorum's bow out of the primary, effectivaly handing Romney the nomination back in April, the RCP average says Romney has been in a Nationwide poll lead for only a couple days. Romney is in bad shape. After tens of millions of dollars’ worth of attack ads from Obama’s campaign and super PAC, voters consistently described Romney as an unlikable guy who doesn’t understand or care about the problems of you and I. That he is a tax cheat, and a killer. A change of dialogue was needed, to both take some heat off Mitt and start a discussion about the real decision being presented to the American people.

The Case for Mitt Romney - Part 3: Vice President Paul Ryan.

Welcome to the Race, Mr. Ryan.

I'll admit it, I didn't think this was a realistic possibility. I didn't even have him listed in my little survey on this page. And surely Mitt saw the commercial of Paul pushing granny off a cliff? Does that narrative go right into what Obama has already said (DRAT!! keep it positive)

But wait? What am I doing? Let's not pick this guy because the Democrats make attack adds about him?  This man is the only one who has actually put forward a plan that will make something called Medicare exist past 2024, or 2016. This is the only person to put forward a complete budget plan that actually passed a wing of congress. This is the man who appeared with Cong. Wasserman-Shultz on CNN, and has appeared on MSNBC. He also opened up at the Health Care summit the discussion directly to President Obama about the hidden and misleading costs of Obama-Care. This guy is unafraid to challenge people in any arena, and that is something that I feel most people have been looking for in this election.

He also plays well into Romney's narrative of bringing new ideas and tackling the big issues of entitlement reform and the debt. It will be interesting how Romney identifies his own ideas and plans in the shadow of such a developed and debated set of plans brought forward by Ryan. But, the primary point here is that new ideas will help change the narrative of the election and force the oppositions hand to come out with their own plan to tackle these issues.

There is also the superficial, Paul Ryan is a 42 year old, full head of hair, athletic man who fits the mold of a handsome fellow. He injects a young vigor that at least will catch the eye of a younger demographic.

So what does this boil down to? Marco Rubio or Kelly Ayotte could have helped in making large swaths of voters take another look at the republican ticket. At a glance, I don't see Paul Ryan doing this. A McDonell or a Portman could have given a nudge in a close swing state, Many people don't think Wisconsin is in play even in the wake of this choice (We shall see). Then what was the intent here? Simple, he is trying to motivate his base while learning lessons from the '08 pick of Palin. A Rubio pick could backfire, it would bring immigration to the fore front where an Obama plan could appeal more to Latinos. An Ayotte pick could force the 'War on Woman' dialogue where Mitt might have to defend taking away potentially free contraceptive care. Rubio or Portman With a Paul Ryan pick the dialogue is Debt and the Affordable Care Act (ACA), two items that have generally negative numbers among the populous. The first salvo being fired at the tremendous size of cuts that the ACA make, forcing the explanation that it's $700 billion in cuts are waste and fraud, and that that is why it should instead go to another government medical program that surely will not fall victim to $700 Billion in waste and fraud.

The Romney/Ryan campaign will have to break the mold of Middle Aged White Politician
See what I did there? I included a jab at Obama-Care in the context of what Romney was doing as part of his campaign strategy, is that breaking the rules? I digress. The point here is that it isn't about trying to attract the woman vote, or the Latino vote, it's about changing the dialogue to something that will energize Romney's Base instead of Obama's. It was a pick based on ideas and articulating his vision, not politics or popularity. At the very least, you have to tip your hat and say that it was a bold choice.

He's no Bobby Jindal, his explanations, though effective, can lull people a bit when compared to the excitement other politicians seem to generate. But, after taking a few days to look at how Ryan has hit the floor of the campaign, I'm impressed. The R&R campaign has pressed some of the issues Ryan has argued in the past. The hope being that it will expose a lack of new ideas or force justifications for their plans and actions. Demotivating their side, while simultaneously bringing the ideas that can save Medicare and reign in government spending that will motivate their side to the polls, here's to hoping it works. I give Mitt Romney pretty strong kudos in picking a running mate based on ideas and intellect. The person who looks better on paper then in a headline. The same way one would hire someone for a job rather than deciding who to go out on a date with. It's the approach you take when you are serious about running a country over winning over the masses. The one draw back of using this line of thinking here being that you must win over the masses before you can run a country.

The Case for Mitt Romney - Part 1: The Resume
The Case for Mitt Romney - Part 2: The Plan

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