Welcome to September! Wait, what? It's still August? Well don't tell that to Cub's fans. After an eventful, albeit fast paced trading season, the Cubs had to dip into their prospects pool to both fill out the 25 man roster and to give fans a preview of what this team will look like as we continue to shed salaries and look for those home grown base players to begin a new era of baseball on the north side.
Dempster, Soto, Mahalom, Johnson, and Baker are gone, with then a total of 49 seasons of experience. The only player with any major league experience we got in return is Vizcaino who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. The optimistic approach is that the bounce back rate for pitchers elbows is getting better all the time and late next year/after next year will will have a highly rated prospect pitcher. We also picked up two more above average pitching prospects in Chapman and Hedricks who should both be major league relavant within the next three years. These are much needed prospects, In reviewing the Cubs pitching prospects over the past couple years, you have McNutt who has been up and down, Hayden Simpson who needs another year before anything conclusive can be determined about him. Carpenter; traded, Archer; traded. And that pretty much catches you up. The optimistic scout will give Dolis a chance to prove himself at the major league level and give Rusin a chance to catch up to AAA hitting and make his way into the majors perhaps later next year. So our farm system for pitching is looking better then it has in some time, but probably won't start seeing returns until 2014. And with news breaking today of Garza perhaps being shut down for the season, tons of question marks begin for what the rotation will look like next season. I'd like to see the team go and grab a veteran this off season to take some of the pressure off guys like Coleman and Wells to shore up a sub-par rotation, but currently the opening day rotation looks something like this;
1). Samardzija
2.) Garza (unless he does well in spring training and earns opening day honors)
3.) Wood
4.) Coleman
5.) Volstad
Yeah, I know, Hopefully Germano finished strong and we can sign him for a year or two. Wells is out of options so it will be interesting what happens to him next year. Rusin or Raley are the other dark horses here. For now though, we have one 10+ Game winner in here and he currently is forbidden from picking up a ball. Wood and Samardzija have shown some streaks of good pitching, so give them a chance to prove themselves. Coleman is at that point where he is running out of options but hasn't proven the ability to be a long term major league player, perhaps better suited for the 'pen. Volstad kinda scares me to be honest. I was excited when he came over but has done little to impress me personally since.
Hopefully we got a couple front end guys coming up in a couple seasons from the aforementioned group, and I'm sure pitching will continue to be the focus on trades for the off season and probably next season (yeah, I'm calling it now, Cubs will be sellers in 2013). I'm not so convinced I see an Ace in the batch, but how many Strasburgs are there out there? We'll draft a high first round pitcher next year and trade for another pitching prospect, and I'm confident from the pool of 3 or 4 high pitching prospects someone will emerge as a consistent 15 game winner to head off a rotation with a couple well suited wing men to help the team score, by which of course I mean prevent the other team from scoring. Time for some new metaphors!
2014 rotation
1). Garza (I'm an optimist that the Cubs will keep him long term)
2). Samardzija
3). Chapman
4). Rusin
5). Wood
Here is the good news, Position Players;
The Future is now, as we are giving several guys from the system a chance to earn there spot in the Cubs long term planning. We are currently seeing Jackson, Vitters, LaHair, Rizzo, Barney, and Castro, for a total of about 4 years of major league experience, get their shot. Although it's early it looks like we have a great contact hitter that flashes leather in Castro, a potential Gold Glove candidate in Barney, a 30+ HR hitter in Rizzo, a potential 20HR/20SB player with plus defensive in Jackson and the other guy who happens to be an All Starer this year in LaHair. Sadly, LaHair does seem to be the odd man out as is. He started the year strong and covered first base as well as anyone out there, but his early sizzle cooled down and he still struggles with left handed pitching (hitting .067 against lefties compared to .304 against righties). Couple that with the Cubbies not getting rid of Rizzo anytime soon and having one of their few veterans in DeJesus signed for two more years playing right field, I think LaHair could be a nice looking trading chip this off season. And to seal the deal, I just got a jersey shirt of LaHair for my birthday (adding to my collection of ; Ramirez, Soto, Murton, Patterson, and Garciapara).
Of course the club would still like to move Soriano, a shame since our list of players with more then 2 years experience can be counted on one hand, but his 25ish HR a year with so-so average and ho-hum defense in his good stretches just doesn't appeal to any long term strategy. I'd like to see the team grab a veteran player or two, even as stop gaps, just so the younger players have someone to look up to, DeJesus is probably carrying a large amount of that load, but in fairness to Soriano, the team speaks highly of him as a person who leads by example etc. Assuming Jackson is up for a while, a likely scenario is that Soriano gets traded this off season and LaHair is given left field. If we can't dump Soriano, I predict LaHair will get moved for another pitching prospect. Leaving Jackson in Center with DeJesus in Right. The Chicago Flame Campana will fill a 4th outfielder role splendidly.
The infield is starting to firm up. I don't see us doing much better then Castro, Barney, and Rizzo for their respective positions. 3rd base is currently wide open with Vitters given a chance to earn it long term right now, It will be interesting to see what happens when Stewart gets back. Stewart has 20+ HR Potential and a big plus sign for defense, but his average, well, stinks. He is getting a nagging wrist injury looked at which may have been inhibiting him at the plate, but I don't see him being more then a .220 or .240 range average. Meanwhile, Vitters has always been an offensive player looking for a place on the field. A Minus sign for defense covered up with 20+ HR potential, but with a near .300 average to go with it. Vitters is up right now due to a need for some offense and 3rd base being more or less available as Valbuena's average continues to tumble. But he has been developing slowly in the majors and may need a bit more time to ensure he can cover the hot corner in a major league game. I see Stewart getting the starts beginning next year but on a short leash with Vitters sitting in the wings, the interesting thing here is the hot hitting Baez is moving up through the minors as a shortstop that appears destined to move over to third as he bulks up and turns into more of a power hitter. Comparisons to the likes of Miguel Tejada and Hanley Ramirez make him one of the hottest position prospects who isn't getting called up this year.
The other position in question is catcher, it's a shame Soto never panned out into the major defensive player with a bat that could sneak up on an opposing team late in the lineup. He called a good game and it will be interesting to see how Castillo and Clevenger do splitting some time behind the plate. Most people say Castillo as the future last year unless Soto turned it around. Allthough Castillo isn't making the big splash that Soto did in '07 but does look ready for the major league level. With no real prospects in the wings the stakes are pretty high here.
The other major point of concern going forward is the bench, right now we have LaHair, Clevenger, Valbuena, Mather, and whatever other guys we called up from Iowa this week (currently Cardenas). Very weak. This is where getting a couple of veteran guys could really benefit the team in more ways then one. Change up Valbuena for Vitters/Stewart non-starter and get a veteran utility player (What's DeRosa up to these days?) or perhaps a Campana just as a late inning base runner and you can fill several rolls, but ultimately you need at least one scary bat from the right and the left. If Stewart starts and LaHair becomes more of a bench player that gives you LaHair for righties and Vitters against lefties that could work. But Vitters winning the third base job, accompanied with a Stewart release/trade would leave a gap for a decent right handed bat off the bench.
2013 Starting Lineup;
1). DeJesus* - RF
2). Castro - SS
3). Jackson* - CF
4.) Rizzo* - 1B
5.) Soriano - LF
6.) Vitters - 3B
7.) Castillo - C
8.) Barney - 2B
Prediction for 2013 Season; Continuing a progression of bettering defense all around and a big improvement in power, Cubs hit about 30 more HR's to move us to the middle of the pack power wise, and we steal a few more bases, but our average flounders with low numbers coming from the Catcher and Third Base posistion. Overall making us a pretty average offensive and defensive team but with an optimism for the future as most position players have good stretches of exceptional play. If it wasn't for the pitching that sputters and studders as we still look for middle relief and a set up man. Marmol rebounds a bit but doesn't become lights out going for about 30 for 38 in saves. Our starters struggle to hit .500 as individuals and ultimately can't keep the team ERA low enough, Runs/Game of team is about 4.3 to go with Team ERA of 4.7, Cubs go 68-94 or .420 winning percentage (current 2012 season is hovering around .400, so a slight improvement). However, as our talent pool develops and more quality pitchers float through the top, and with players like Baez and Soler looking to be big bats in the future, It looks like the 3-5 year plan fro Cubs to returning to competativeness is well on track. Also, consider that the North side salary will be <$80 million next year, down about $50 from just a couple years ago. so once we develope this base team, going out and getting that Ace, or veteran catcher, or whatever position comes up a little short at the end of this rebuilding process, from free agency will be much more realistic. So, I wait with baited breathe Chicago, as I have for years and will continue until the day I'm left with tears of joy and covered in beer because someday, we'll go all the way! Take it Eddie!!!
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